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Title: Probabilistic Management of Water Resources and Hydropower Systems
Authors: M.S. Basson, R.B. Allen, G.G.S. Pegram and J.A. van Rooyen
Specifications: Hard Cover, 434 pp, ISBN 918334-89-6
Price: US $82
Cat No: PMWR

Successfully applied to more than 15 water resource systems in 5 countries. Aimed at: Water Resource Managers -- Hydropower Authorities -- Universities -- Consulting Engineers -- Graduate Students in water engineering



This is a first comprehensive publication to cover the application of stochastic hydrology together with sophisticated systems analysis techniques in water resources engineering.

The methodology that was developed has been extensively applied in practice for more than five years for the real-time operating and development planning of large water resource systems with great success. The stochastic models and probabilistic techniques have been tested and proven under varied hydrological conditions from semi-desert to humid sub-tropical and mountain highland conditions. Although primarily aimed at complex multi-reservoir systems, serving multiple users with varying reliability of supply requirements, as well as hydropower generation, the methodology described applies equally well to simple single reservoir developments.

Acceptance today is not only due to the sound theory underlining the technique but also because of the methods deployed to communicate findings to decision makers and interested and affected parties, aided by a number of cases where decisions had led to substantial cost savings.

This book is primarily aimed at professional water resources engineers and graduate students in water engineering. Consulting engineers, water authorities, water resource managers, hydropower authorities and universities will also benefit from it. ISBN 918334-89-6. Publ WRP.


"An extremely useful reference manual for engineers and other practitioners in the field of water resources engineering. I am using this book as one of the texts in an advanced (post-graduate) course in the Analysis and Design of Water Resources Systems. The authors are among the most competent and scientifically progressive professionals in this field. Their emphasis on probabilistic management does them credit." -- Nathan Buras, Professor, University of Arizona


Chapt. 1:

    Description of Vaal River system
    Problem approach and development work
    Aims of the book
    Overview of contents

Chapt. 2: Principles of Yield and Reliability Synopsis

    Concepts of yield
    Risk of failure and reliability of supply
    Long-term yield analysis
    Short-term yield analysis
    Reliability constraints in long-term planning
    Reliability of constraints in short-term operations

Chapt. 3: Hydrological Data Preparation Summary

    Hydrological data
    Hydrological data checks
    Factors affecting stream-flow records
    Data repair work

Chapt. 4: Multi-Site Streamflow Modelling Summary

    Survey of candidates for multisite stream-flow modelling
    The marginal distribution of annual stream-flow totals

    The Arma modelling of univariate time series
    Cross-correlation between annual residuals, matrix factoring and a multisite annual disaggregation model
    Model verification and validation

Chapt. 5: Modelling and Analysis Concepts

    Modelling techniques
    Analysis methodology
    Resource allocation modelling
    Water salinity modelling

Chapt. 6: Application of Modelling Techniques

    System representation
    Yield analysis
    Operational analysis
    Integrated system development planning

Chapt. 7: Hydropower Systems

    Yield/demand concepts
    System yield analysis
    Operational analysis
    Development planning analysis

Appendix A: Discounted Cash Flow Formulation

    Appendix 3.1
    Appendix 3.B
    Appendix 3C-1
    Appendix 4-1


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