Probabilistic Management of Water Resources and Hydropower Systems

Title: Probabilistic Management of Water Resources and Hydropower Systems
Authors: M.S. Basson, R.B. Allen, G.G.S. Pegram and J.A. van Rooyen
Specifications: Hard Cover, 434 pp, ISBN 918334-89-6
Price: US $82
Cat No: PMWR

Successfully applied to more than 15 water resource systems in 5 countries. Aimed at: Water Resource Managers -- Hydropower Authorities -- Universities -- Consulting Engineers -- Graduate Students in water engineering

REVIEWS -- From the TABLE OF CONTENTS

DESCRIPTION

This is a first comprehensive publication to cover the application of stochastic hydrology together with sophisticated systems analysis techniques in water resources engineering.

The methodology that was developed has been extensively applied in practice for more than five years for the real-time operating and development planning of large water resource systems with great success. The stochastic models and probabilistic techniques have been tested and proven under varied hydrological conditions from semi-desert to humid sub-tropical and mountain highland conditions. Although primarily aimed at complex multi-reservoir systems, serving multiple users with varying reliability of supply requirements, as well as hydropower generation, the methodology described applies equally well to simple single reservoir developments.

Acceptance today is not only due to the sound theory underlining the technique but also because of the methods deployed to communicate findings to decision makers and interested and affected parties, aided by a number of cases where decisions had led to substantial cost savings.

This book is primarily aimed at professional water resources engineers and graduate students in water engineering. Consulting engineers, water authorities, water resource managers, hydropower authorities and universities will also benefit from it. ISBN 918334-89-6. Publ WRP.

REVIEWS [top]

"An extremely useful reference manual for engineers and other practitioners in the field of water resources engineering. I am using this book as one of the texts in an advanced (post-graduate) course in the Analysis and Design of Water Resources Systems. The authors are among the most competent and scientifically progressive professionals in this field. Their emphasis on probabilistic management does them credit." -- Nathan Buras, Professor, University of Arizona

TABLE OF CONTENTS [top]

Chapt. 1:

Introduction
General
Description of Vaal River system
Problem approach and development work
Aims of the book
Overview of contents

Chapt. 2: Principles of Yield and Reliability Synopsis

Introduction
Concepts of yield
Risk of failure and reliability of supply
Long-term yield analysis
Short-term yield analysis
Reliability constraints in long-term planning
Reliability of constraints in short-term operations
Conclusion

Chapt. 3: Hydrological Data Preparation Summary

Introduction
Hydrological data
Hydrological data checks
Factors affecting stream-flow records
Data repair work

Chapt. 4: Multi-Site Streamflow Modelling Summary

Introduction
Survey of candidates for multisite stream-flow modelling
The marginal distribution of annual stream-flow totals

The Arma modelling of univariate time series
Cross-correlation between annual residuals, matrix factoring and a multisite annual disaggregation model
Model verification and validation

Chapt. 5: Modelling and Analysis Concepts

Introduction
Modelling techniques
Analysis methodology
Resource allocation modelling
Water salinity modelling

Chapt. 6: Application of Modelling Techniques

Introduction
System representation
Yield analysis
Operational analysis
Integrated system development planning

Chapt. 7: Hydropower Systems

Introduction
Yield/demand concepts
System yield analysis
Operational analysis
Development planning analysis

Appendix A: Discounted Cash Flow Formulation

Appendix 3.1
Appendix 3.B
Appendix 3C-1
Appendix 4-1

References